What does 2026 have in store for us, and which technological innovations are likely to shape our lives through the end of the decade? Looking ahead to the new year, Oikonomiki Epitheorisi spoke with Olaf Groth, futurist, strategic analyst at UC Berkeley Haas, and CEO of Cambrian.ai. He outlines a future in which technological renaissance extends far beyond industry, influencing fields ranging from politics and space exploration to healthcare, where research into brain-computer interfaces could, within the coming years, lead to treatments for certain forms of memory loss, blindness, or loss of mobility.
A distinguished member of the Global Expert Network for the Fourth Industrial Revolution at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Groth emphasizes the growing importance of the concepts of “geotechnology” and “geotechnological diplomacy” in the emerging world order, where technology is becoming a central pillar of geopolitics, economics, and international cooperation. At the same time, he believes that truly autonomous robots—at least within a limited range of tasks—will begin to emerge within the coming year.
Interview by Thanasis Katsikidis
(Published in Economic Review - December 2025)
The Four Characteristics of the Fourth Industrial Revolution
In recent years, the term “Fourth Industrial Revolution” (4IR), also known as “Industry 4.0,” has been used to describe rapid technological developments, including artificial intelligence and robotics, as well as the fact that we have begun to live in an augmented social reality. How does our era differ from previous technological revolutions?
There are four key differences between what is happening today and what occurred historically.
First, today’s transformation is unfolding much faster because it is driven by software, code, and data that move in fractions of a second.
Second, it is far more pervasive. Algorithms and data influence nearly every sector of society because we have built far more digital infrastructure since the previous revolution. As a result, this new revolution reaches every corner of society.
Third, it primarily affects white-collar workers, who are being asked to adapt. We are not necessarily talking about mass job losses, but certainly about significant changes in job composition and professional roles. This is a new development, since previous industrial revolutions mainly affected manual laborers.
Fourth, unlike previous eras, Asia—and particularly China—is innovating and leading alongside the United States. This is a new experience for both sides. China is not accustomed to being a technological leader in modern history, and the United States is not accustomed to having an almost equal partner at the forefront of innovation.
These are the four ways in which this revolution differs from those that came before.
Technology at the Center of Geopolitics
You have spoken about the era of technological globalization. How is artificial intelligence reshaping international relations, and what might a new form of digital diplomacy look like? For example, by 2030, when algorithms rather than ambassadors mediate many global interactions?
That is a truly thought-provoking question. Artificial intelligence is an extraordinarily powerful tool—or more accurately, a collection of very powerful tools. Its influence extends beyond work and the economy into society and, naturally, politics. This is why we are witnessing a convergence of political and military-defense objectives around AI. Artificial intelligence has become not only a tool but also a battleground for geopolitical competition.
The same applies to other critical resources of our time: computing power, the “chip war,” and data as the fuel of the digital economy. All of these have become subjects of geopolitical rivalry.
This brings us to what we call “geotechnology”: technology at the heart of geopolitics. And this era is not ending anytime soon. Even if the United States and China eventually reach agreements on critical issues, we will still live through a prolonged period of technological competition. The two countries will pursue different standards that will clash in both geoeconomics and geopolitics.
Around them, two major spheres of influence will emerge, consisting of obvious allies as well as many countries that will seek to cooperate with both sides in order to access essential technologies. Out of this environment, a new form of diplomacy will emerge—geotechnological diplomacy—which will require understanding both the realities of artificial intelligence and the power politics of previous decades.
We may even see AI systems working closely alongside human diplomats, providing intelligence about counterparts, their psychometric profiles, political positions, power bases, national and personal interests, and even their sources of funding.
Could we eventually have AI systems negotiating directly with one another? Probably not in the near future when it comes to large-scale interstate relations. However, it is realistic to imagine more practical roles: exchanging documents through blockchain systems, executing and verifying agreements, and ensuring data ownership and provenance within contracts.
You mentioned China earlier. It sometimes appears that the West is designing the digital, post-human era without China. Looking ahead, do you believe the world will maintain two competing AI cultures, or eventually converge toward a common framework?
I believe the two intellectual poles I mentioned can coexist for several decades, though not forever, just as we eventually witnessed the end of the Cold War. Nothing lasts forever.
Could they endure for five, six, or even seven decades? Yes. We have seen wars last even longer. So these two poles can certainly persist over time.
There will, however, be some degree of interaction between them, particularly through neutral countries in Central Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America, which will need to cooperate with both sides. Through this process, we will develop greater expertise, flexibility, and new methods for exchanging data and algorithms.
Governance, Innovation, and Democracy
In your book The Great Remobilization, you explore the concept of “governance innovation.” As power shifts from traditional governance toward data platforms and digital political ecosystems become increasingly influential, what will governance innovation look like?
What we will see is growing pressure from citizens on governments to digitize. We already have notable examples such as Denmark and Estonia, but also countries like Kazakhstan and the United Arab Emirates, which have made impressive progress in digital government.
As governments digitize, they will also need to modernize because many public services will have to become more efficient.
The current model of governance in the West is not sustainable. The same can be said of China, though for different reasons. In the West, inefficiency and excessive bureaucracy hinder competitiveness, prosperity, empathy toward citizens, and the ability to respond quickly to public needs.
The pandemic clearly demonstrated that both Western and Eastern governments disappointed their citizens. To borrow Deng Xiaoping’s famous phrase, “It doesn’t matter whether a cat is black or white, as long as it catches mice.” In other words, effectiveness is what matters.
Beyond that, governments still have an important role to play. We are seeing the rise of industrial policy, and I believe it will remain significant for at least two decades. In Europe, with defense spending reaching 3–5% of GDP, we can expect major innovation in defense technologies that could also spill over into broader technological progress.
We already see this in drones, where advances are needed in collaborative autonomy, autonomous orchestration, navigation, and related technologies.
Finally, governments—especially in Europe and the United States—must recognize that data is the fundamental source of future innovation. They need to use it far more intelligently in order to deliver services tailored to citizens’ real-time needs.
Will we see the rise of AI-enhanced democracies?
Absolutely.
When we look at platforms such as Facebook, Instagram, WeChat, or TikTok, we see more and more serious public services and political activity taking place there. These functions were once entirely analog and controlled exclusively by traditional governments. That era is over.
We are entering a period of hybrid governments and hybrid politics, in which artificial intelligence will play a decisive role in influence, connectivity, organization, data collection, and ultimately in predicting decision-making.
Smart cities provide a good example. The ambition is for them to detect problems, make intelligent decisions, and solve issues automatically. Processes such as allocating resources for infrastructure, upgrading systems, and managing wear and tear will increasingly rely on AI systems.
The same applies to migration, one of today’s most pressing political issues. Monitoring and understanding migration flows that cross multiple borders—such as Iraqi and Syrian migrants moving through Turkey into Greece and then onward to other European countries, including Germany—requires forecasting and systematic analysis.
Reconciling the interests of citizens and migrants in areas such as healthcare, social security, identification, and public administration cannot function effectively without artificial intelligence serving as a core support and guidance mechanism.
“Dark Factories” and the Next Wave
Turning to domestic politics, in a recent post you criticized Trump’s “Manufacturing Renaissance” plan, arguing that America must strengthen its technological capabilities and redefine the meaning of manufacturing in the age of artificial intelligence. In your view, what would a genuine manufacturing renaissance look like?
It would be very different from the traditional image we associate with industrial labor. When we think of manufacturing, we usually imagine factories employing thousands of workers. But that model is changing.
We are already seeing the first signs of this in China, with what are known as “dark factories”—large production facilities that operate with minimal human staffing. In these factories, only a handful of people remain at a central office, handling remote control, monitoring, and governance of distant facilities.
As a result, instead of employing a thousand workers, a large manufacturing plant may operate with only ten.
Naturally, this raises an important question: what happens to the rest of the workforce?
With the rise of Agentic AI and the convergence of other forms of artificial intelligence, I believe we will see people able to create, lease, and utilize manufacturing capabilities in modular ways. This could lead to the emergence of networks, zones, and clusters of microfactories, where individuals with specialized skills—such as toolmakers—will suddenly be able to manage their own micro-factory.
What we are witnessing is the emergence of a new cognitive entrepreneurship model.
Looking ahead, which industries or technologies do you believe will define the next wave of the Fourth Industrial Revolution?
I think we will witness a renaissance not only in manufacturing but also in the space sector.
There will be advances in collaborative autonomy and new technologies for navigation and positioning in the air and in space. We are already seeing the first examples through autonomous passenger drones that are beginning to appear.
At the same time, new space technologies will emerge. Small satellites will be capable of operating in coordinated clusters, supporting one another, sharing energy, and enhancing each other’s capabilities.
Exciting developments are also taking place in brain-computer interfaces—not only through Elon Musk’s efforts, but also through innovators such as Bryan Johnson.
There are between 50 and 100 entrepreneurs across the United States, Europe, and China working on these technologies. As a result, we will gain unprecedented knowledge about the human brain.
Eventually, we may be able to treat certain forms of paralysis, blindness, memory loss, and dementia, while also enhancing memory and learning abilities. I would place that on a timeline of roughly 10 to 15 years, perhaps even longer.
Finally, we should also mention carbon capture and carbon commercialization.
We may eventually be able to remove carbon directly from the atmosphere, convert it into commercially useful products, and sell it as an industrial input.
Autonomous Robots?
In conclusion, what do you think will be the defining technological development of 2026?
My intuition tells me that we will see some very interesting innovations in robotics.
Perhaps we will witness the first robots that are genuinely autonomous—at least within a narrowly defined set of tasks. These robots will be autonomous not only operationally but also cognitively: they will perform their own sensory perception and make decisions within a limited operating environment.
People still have reservations, and robots remain relatively immature technologies. As a result, we are unlikely to entrust them with highly complex responsibilities anytime soon.
I also believe we will see significant advances in personalized medicine, driven by artificial intelligence, data science, and increasingly powerful computing technologies.
These developments will likely be reinforced by progress in pharmacology and biochemistry. We are already witnessing breakthroughs in protein-folding technologies.
Ozempic, for example, was a major surprise, and I expect we will see other achievements of a similar magnitude.
In addition, we should not overlook quantum physics.
There is a steady stream of incremental discoveries that could eventually lead to major breakthroughs. Artificial intelligence is helping stabilize quantum bits, while also contributing to advances in fusion energy research.
We may see progress on both fronts.
I am not suggesting that we will soon have a world-changing quantum computer or commercially viable fusion energy within the next year.
What I am saying is that we are likely to see innovations that represent small but meaningful steps toward those goals.
(Photo credit: Wikipedia - CC)